On the eve of the 2024 election, many mainstream media members could find themselves in shock if former president Donald Trump wins, just as they did in 2016. Voter anger over the direction of the country and tone-deaf Democratic policy priorities could play into a Trump victory. Serious character flaws, legal woes, and unpresidential conduct appear to be secondary concerns for many voters. Here are a few issues that could play into a second term for Trump.

Illegal Immigration: According to a U.S. House Judiciary report released on August 5, “In three-and-a-half years, the Biden-Harris Administration has released more than 5.4 million illegal aliens into the United States, with an additional at least 1.9 million known ‘gotaways’ escaping into the country.” The Biden-Harris administration’s failure to protect our southern border and regulate who enters the country has appalled many Americans, and it’s one of the compelling issues driving concerned voters to the polls. 

Economy: Various polls say the economy is the number one issue for voters this election. According to a Pew survey conducted in September, about “eight-in-ten registered voters (81%) say the economy will be very important to their vote in the 2024 presidential election.” According to a Gallup poll in September, 52% of voters say they feel worse off today than four years ago. This does not bode well for Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who hasn’t effectively made a case as to how her policies will differ from President Biden’s.

Inflation: America is facing an inflation crisis comparable to the late 1970’s under Democratic president Jimmy Carter. Inflation spiked at 8% in 2022, compared to 13.5% in 1980. Inflation has since decreased to just over 3% this year, still higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. Wages haven’t kept up with inflation, which means purchasing power and ability to pay for basic cost of living have decreased. When American voters feel a pinch in their pocket books, they’re more likely to vote for the political party out of the White House. This bodes well for former President Trump.

Federal Debt: The federal government has a spending problem. In February 2022, the U.S. federal government debt surpassed $30 trillion. In two years, an additional $5 trillion was added to the federal debt, bringing the total to nearly $36 trillion. According to the Federal Reserve, the annualized cost of servicing the debt was $726 billion in July 2023. This is 14% of total federal spending, and as debt accumulates, interest increasingly consumes federal spending. Either the economy must significantly grow to increase revenue, taxes must increase, or services must be cut.

Public Safety: Public safety proved to be a top issue of concern for voters in Louisville in the 2022 mid-term elections as state House Republicans picked up four seats. News sources say that violent crime is actually decreasing in recent years. However, the FBI adjusted its crime report for 2022, showing the new numbers increased overall. Violent crime incidents — including assaults, rapes, and murders — rose to 1,256,671 in 2022 from 1,197,930 in 2021. This was an increase of 4.9%. Nonetheless, voter perception of increased crime favors Republicans who successfully run on “tough on crime” policies.

Defund the Police: Civil unrest over riots in 2020 led to the defund the police movement. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris supported the idea on a New York-based radio program Ebro in the Morning on June 9, 2020. “This whole movement is about rightly saying, we need to take a look at these budgets and figure out whether it reflects the right priorities.” One of the most basic functions of government is public safety, and voters are leaning Republican when it comes to who will support, law-enforcement, and order in their communities.

Gender Ideology: The Biden administration’s elevation of transgender identity over rights of females to private spaces and sports in public schools is symbolic of Democratic political reordering of a healthy society. It’s not just a political talking point. When biological males like Blaire Fleming of San Jose State are allowed to compete against women, it endangers their safety. It also threatens the integrity of women’s sports. Republican candidates are winning on this issue viewed as common sense by a majority of voters. 

Election Integrity: Democrats generally have opposed common sense measures to keep our elections secure. They’ve opposed government ID’s at the polls and pushed back against Amendment 1 in Kentucky, which would prevent noncitizens from voting. Kentucky House Democratic Caucus Chair Cherlynn Stevenson of Lexington said during a that Amendment 1 is on the ballot to “help drive turnout” and that “it is a solution in search of a problem that doesn’t exist because noncitizens can already not vote.” And the Biden-Harris Department of Justice recently sued the state of Virginia for removing non-citizens from their voter rolls. All of this further frustrates Americans who support every available election integrity measure.

Foreign Policy: Former President Donald Trump is taking a contrary position to leaders within the Republican party by opposing foreign entanglements. His opposition to aid to Ukraine has been interpreted by legacy news media outlets as support for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The disastrous withdrawal in Afghanistan — leaving 13 U.S. service members dead, hundreds of U.S. citizens stranded, and billions of dollars of American military hardware and infrastructure to the Taliban — is one of the biggest foreign policy disasters in U.S. history. While withdrawal was popular, failed planning resulted in chaos that undermined two decades of infrastructure building and amounted to a waste of U.S. tax dollars.

Foreign Trade: Goods made in America are more expensive, and government should take action to make sure that we are not a dumping ground for cheap products from China. Currently our international trade deficit is $70 billion. This hurts U.S. manufacturers, and it’s why many union members are supporting Trump.

Energy Policy: America sits on enough fossil fuels to lower energy costs at home and be a major exporter. However, the Biden-Harris administration has blocked development of America’s natural resources, such as opening up more federal lands to oil drilling and the Keystone Pipeline. This has hurt our energy independence, economic growth, and resulted in consumers to spend more on basic necessities.

DEI: Democrats in academic, corporate, and political leadership positions have embraced diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies which are counter to the American ideal of meritocracy. These policies require leaders to make decisions with regard to immutable characteristics, not competence. DEI in the Biden-Harris administration is especially unpopular with rural voters and not helping Vice President Harris in swing states 

Anti-semitism: Ugly anti-semitism on college campuses is the latest reminder of how far left ideology has permeated American culture and how radicalized some university environments have become. Refusal of top university presidents at Harvard, UPenn, and Columbia (who eventually lost their jobs) to punish violent threats against Jewish students and professors is an inconsistency with First Amendment freedoms expected to be protected at our universities. 

Legacy Media: Mainstream media outlets have marginalized conservative voices and misrepresented important issues. Consider that, as they report news stories on gender dysphoria, they call it “gender-affirming care,” which does anything but care for those struggling with what was once considered mental illness.”Reproductive rights” have nothing to do with reproduction. Cracking down on illegal immigration has been reported as “anti-immigrant.” Too many legacy media journalists have become democratic public relations allies. Their left leaning political bias and failure to treat conservatives fairly on important issues, has pushed center-right aligned voters to other media outlets. 

According to a Gallup poll taken in September, Americans have record-low trust in the news media. More U.S. adults say they “have no trust at all” in the media (36%) than “trust it a great deal or fair amount.” An additional 33% of Americans say they do not have “very much” confidence. News media has a crisis of believability according to 69% of Americans. The latest case in point was Trump’s comments on Liz Cheney’s hawkish policies. Some outlets reported that Trump wanted her in front of a firing squad. A full context doesn’t support that, regardless of how crass or unwise his analogy. Center-right voters are turning to new media outlets, especially podcasts like The Joe Rogan Experience, All-In, and The Tucker Carlson Show. Joe Rogan has 14.5 million followers alone. The highest viewership for the top evening news shows is about half that.

Many media members could find themselves in shock if Trump wins, just as they did in 2016. For the reasons listed above, they shouldn’t. Many Americans are rejecting the direction of our nation. At Gallup’s latest measure, 4 out of 5 Americans think we’re on the wrong path. Legacy media would recognize this if they paid attention to the concerns of American voters, who have put these issues and Donald Trump’s perceived ability to fix them above character concerns. As a friend of CPC shared recently, “When your house is on fire, you don’t care who the fireman is. You just want the fire put out.” If Donald Trump wins on Tuesday, that will be the reason why.

CPC Research Director Christopher Parr contributed to this column.